423
FXUS65 KABQ 282053
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
253 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
- Strong winds and dry conditions will increase the threat of
rapid fire spread each day through Tuesday.
- There will be a moderate risk of heat-induced illness for
sensitive groups in eastern New Mexico today.
- Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern
New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Gusty southwest winds are ongoing throughout central and northern NM
this afternoon out ahead of a broad longwave trough currently
located over The Great Basin. The SW/NE jet max at 700 mb will move
from northwest to northeast NM overnight, creating gusty winds along
the crest and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns overnight
into the early morning hours. Winds should remain lighter below
roughly 9500 feet, but gusts could approach 65 mph over the peaks.
Southwest flow will continue to prevail over New Mexico on Monday,
although winds will trend weaker as the aformentioned trough pulls
northward. It will still be breezy areawide, with gusts generally in
the 20 to 35 mph range. Temperatures will remain relatively
unchanged on Monday, with highs generally within a few degrees of
seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
A portion of The Great Basin trough will break off over California
Monday night, pushing into the Mojave desert on Tuesday. An upper-
level speed max will clip the Four Corners area, increasing winds
over the high terrain of western NM. 700 mb winds from the LREF mean
are in the 20 to 30 knot range so gusts upwards of 35 mph could mix
down to the surface. It will not be as windy as this weekend, but
still seasonably windy for the last day of June. The aformentioned
jet streak will help to push Gulf moisture northward into east-
central and northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers could
develop as far east as Santa Rosa and as far north as Clayton and
the uptick in shear could support an isolated severe storm or two.
The dryline boundary will likely set up in the same area on
Wednesday afternoon, with isolated storms in the far eastern portion
of the state. The synoptic pattern will remain active over the
western CONUS late week into the weekend, although the jet stream
looks like it will stay north of New Mexico. That will translate to
weaker winds, but warmer temperatures. Highs will climb into the 90s
in most lower elevation areas late week, with temperatures near or
above the 100 degree mark in the eastern plains.
The late week time period has also trended drier given that the
monsoon high will be slow to develop overhead. GEFS ensemble mean
PWATs trend up to near normal over the weekend, rising slightly
above normal early next week as easterly flow sets up over the
southern half of the state. 500 mb heights on all ensemble means are
showing a ridge setting up over the desert southwest early next
week, but they vary significantly in the magnitude and exact
location.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Gusty SW winds are beginning to mix down to the sfc, with gusts
as high as 40 knots already being recorded in a few locations. SW
winds of 15 to 30 knots will be commonplace around the region
today, with the highest gusts near the western and northern high
terrain. There is a low chance (~30%) that KABQ reaches AWW
criteria (35 knots) mid to late afternoon between 23Z and 02Z.
Winds will remain elevated through the night around the high
terrain of the northern mountains, particularly the Sangre de
Cristo mtns where mtn wave activity is likely. This will also
create significant LLWS in this area between 09Z and 15Z
tomorrow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...
Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing throughout much of
central and northern New Mexico this afternoon, with the strongest
southwest winds focusing over the western and northern high terrain.
There have been fewer fire starts than expected given all of the dry
lightning last week, but the benefits of last week`s moisture are
diminishing as evidenced by increasing ERCs throughout the state.
Winds will trend weaker in most areas Monday, except across the
northeast where there will be several hours of critical fire weather
conditions. Southwest flow will remain entrenched across the state
through mid-week, with increasing winds on Tuesday. Near critical to
critical conditions will focus over southwest and northeast NM so a
Fire Weather Watch was issued for these areas on Tuesday. Gulf
moisture will push northward into northeast NM on Tuesday, providing
the energy for a few showers and storms along the dryline. If this
moisture looks like it will push further northward, a Red Flag
Warning may not be needed for Tuesday for the Northeast Plains.
Winds trend weaker mid to late week as temperatures trend higher.
The late week/weekend period has recently trended drier with only
very low chances of rain in south-central and southeast NM. The
monsoon high will attempt to set up over the desert southwest early
next week, drawing more moisture into the state and increasing rain
chances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 57 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 43 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 5
Cuba............................ 53 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 48 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 51 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 52 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 53 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 60 86 59 86 / 0 5 0 5
Datil........................... 56 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 51 88 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 55 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 45 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 5
Los Alamos...................... 62 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 55 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 47 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 43 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 5
Taos............................ 52 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 53 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 5
Espanola........................ 58 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 63 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 61 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 64 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 60 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 64 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 61 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 64 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 66 98 65 97 / 0 0 5 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 58 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 5
Clines Corners.................. 58 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 5
Mountainair..................... 58 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 5
Gran Quivira.................... 60 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 66 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 61 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 20
Capulin......................... 57 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 10
Raton........................... 56 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 5
Springer........................ 58 90 54 90 / 0 0 0 10
Las Vegas....................... 59 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
Clayton......................... 68 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 20
Roy............................. 62 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 10
Conchas......................... 69 97 66 97 / 0 0 5 20
Santa Rosa...................... 66 93 63 91 / 0 0 5 20
Tucumcari....................... 72 98 69 97 / 0 5 5 20
Clovis.......................... 71 97 68 95 / 5 20 10 40
Portales........................ 72 98 68 96 / 10 20 10 40
Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 67 96 / 0 10 0 30
Roswell......................... 72 100 69 98 / 5 10 5 20
Picacho......................... 65 95 63 92 / 0 10 0 30
Elk............................. 63 92 61 90 / 0 5 0 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104-105-
109-120-121-123-125.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-123.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ104-105-109-123.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-210-216-
228.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT Monday for NMZ213-215-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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