Raton, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS65 KABQ 111136
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Minor risk of burn scar flash flooding today and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and storms today and Thursday may produce
  gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain along and east of the
  central mountain chain.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas by
  the weekend as temperatures warm to the hottest levels so far
  this season. Major heat risk is possible for the southeast
  plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Patchy fog has developed in Curry and Roosevelt counties early
this morning. Some fog was added to the forecast based on
satellite trends, however it should dissipate by 9AM at the
latest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Yesterday`s Low has exited to the east and heights are gradually
rising over New Mexico in its wake. Water vapor imagery shows drier
air pushing in from the west which will translate to a downtick in
convective activity today. Storms will initiate over the central
mountain chain then get carried off to the southeast, decaying as
they move into the lower elevations. While it cannot be ruled out,
the burn scar flash flood risk will be lower than previous days due
to a lower coverage of storms and less efficient rainfall rates. The
HREF mean is showing 0.2" or less over both burn scars, but the 90th
percentile does hint at the potential for nearly 1" over the HPCC
scar. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern for most and
these could impact any areas. Diurnally driven storms will rapidly
decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating.

Precipitation chances have trended up slightly for Thursday thanks
to a shortwave that will graze northeastern NM. The added shear will
help to keep updrafts going as they move off the Sangre de Cristo
mountains into adjacent highlands. Bulk shear is borderline (~25kts)
for the development of severe storms, but would not be surprised if
a Marginal Risk is introduced to the northeast plains for Thursday
afternoon. The added forcing also slightly elevates the threat of
flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar, but HREF max is still only
showing localized amounts of 0.75-1" so the risk remains low to
moderate. Drier air moving in from the west will significantly limit
the coverage of showers/storms over the Cont. Divide and Rio Grande
Valley, with only isolated high-based gusty showers and storms
expected. The warming trend continues tomorrow, with highs rising to
a few degrees above normal in most areas, except near average in the
eastern plains thanks to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Showers and storms over northeast and east-central NM late Thursday
will dissipate thru the evening with remnant mid level cloud cover
thru sunrise Friday. Another crop of showers and storms will form
over the central mt chain Friday afternoon then move south and east
into nearby highlands thru sunset. Coverage is likely to be less
with smaller footprints of rainfall and a greater chance for gusty
outflow winds.

A 591dm H5 high centered over Sonora Friday will build northeast
into southwest NM Saturday and Sunday. Low level moisture will
remain in place over far eastern NM with a couple popcorn storms
possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM. Very dry
air advecting into western NM will force dewpoints into the teens
and perhaps upper single digits. Max temps will warm to the hottest
levels so far this year for much of the area. Most MOS guidance
keeps max temps below 100F at KABQ however probabilities on the
latest NBM continue to show very high chances (>80%). A couple
deterministic model solutions are also showing higher chances for
storms to impact the Ruidoso area Sunday. This trend will be
monitored closely given the threat for burn scar flooding.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases Monday and Tuesday as an H5
low and associated 75-85kt speed max attempts to move from SoCal
into AZ and NM. The H5 high may be squashed well southward into
northern MX while very dry air on southwest breezes spreads into
NM. Temps will remain hot Monday but may cool several degrees by
Tuesday. The latest GFS continues to advertise a slower, deeper
H5 low approaching from SoCal, allowing greater moisture to surge
northward into NM. This pattern would allow for increasing storm
coverage over the region Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Patchy fog has developed in far eastern NM this morning, but it
will be short-lived and dissipate by 15Z. Scattered showers and
storms will develop over the high terrain around 18Z, moving into
the lower elevations during the afternoon hours. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds will be the main concern with these small storms.
While not mentioned in all TAFs, these gusty outflow winds cannot
be ruled out at any terminals this afternoon. Convection will
dissipate after 01Z, ending altogether by 07Z. VFR conditions will
prevail around the area through the TAF period, however very MVFR
conditions are possible with heavier storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow
afternoon/evening will focus over the central mountain chain. A
drying/warming trend is expected late week, with only isolated
storms confined eastern NM. An elongated ridge over Mexico will
nudge northward over the weekend, bringing the hottest temps of the
season and therefore increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Very low humidities are expected during this stretch as well thanks
to very deep afternoon mixing underneath the high pressure. A
southwest to westerly breeze in western NM will create elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions early next week, but there is
a low chance (~15%) that this becomes critical fire weather
conditions if a potent late season trough approaches the area from
the west as shown by a few ENS and GEPS members.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  58  91  56 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  45  86  43 /  20  10  10   0
Cuba............................  83  53  85  53 /  20  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  88  49  88  49 /  20   5   0   0
El Morro........................  83  51  84  52 /  30  10   0   0
Grants..........................  86  51  88  51 /  30  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  86  54  86  53 /  20  20   5   0
Magdalena.......................  84  59  88  59 /  40  20  20  10
Datil...........................  83  56  86  55 /  50  20  20   5
Reserve.........................  90  49  91  49 /  20  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  94  56  96  54 /  20  10   0   0
Chama...........................  77  46  79  46 /  30  20  20   0
Los Alamos......................  79  57  82  58 /  30  10  20   0
Pecos...........................  80  54  83  54 /  30  20  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  79  51  79  49 /  30  20  40   5
Red River.......................  68  43  70  43 /  40  20  50   5
Angel Fire......................  73  38  75  37 /  40  20  50   5
Taos............................  82  46  83  46 /  30  20  30   5
Mora............................  77  48  80  48 /  50  20  50   5
Espanola........................  87  55  90  55 /  30  10  20   0
Santa Fe........................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  85  56  87  56 /  20  20  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  92  65 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  62  93  63 /  10  20   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  61  95  61 /  10  20   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  63  94  63 /  10  20   5   5
Belen...........................  93  59  96  59 /  20  20   5  10
Bernalillo......................  92  61  95  61 /  10  20   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  92  58  95  58 /  10  20   5   5
Corrales........................  93  61  95  62 /  10  20   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  92  60  96  59 /  10  20   5   5
Placitas........................  88  62  91  62 /  10  20   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  91  62  95  62 /  10  20   5   5
Socorro.........................  94  65  97  65 /  30  30  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  56  86  57 /  10  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  85  59  88  58 /  10  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  85  53  88  54 /  20  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  49  89  50 /  20  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  80  54  84  54 /  20  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  84  54  88  56 /  20  30  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  83  54  89  56 /  30  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  87  60  91  62 /  40  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  78  56  83  59 /  40  30  40  20
Capulin.........................  78  51  82  51 /  30  20  30  20
Raton...........................  83  50  85  50 /  40  20  40  10
Springer........................  83  50  87  50 /  40  20  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  79  51  83  51 /  40  20  40  10
Clayton.........................  84  57  87  58 /  10  20  10  10
Roy.............................  81  54  84  54 /  30  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  87  60  92  60 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  85  58  90  58 /  20  30  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  86  59  91  60 /   5  20  10  20
Clovis..........................  84  61  90  62 /   5  20   5  20
Portales........................  85  60  91  62 /   5  10   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  87  60  93  60 /  10  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  90  66  97  66 /  10  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  85  59  91  60 /  30  20  30  10
Elk.............................  83  56  88  58 /  30  20  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16